Trepidation in Twickenham: Wales attempt to defy odds and expectations

Jamie George (centre) will lead England for the start with usual skipper Maro Itoje on the bench

A prod, a nudge and the memories spilled out.

For England hooker Jamie George, it was Tom Jones, Scott Gibbs, 1999 and all that.

A Wales team relocated to Wembley and, with eight-year-old George's godfather Kevin Bowring recently on their coaching staff, staged a glorious late heist.

Team-mate Alex Coles' mind went back to 2017 - Jonathan Davies' shanked kick, Owen Farrell's long pass and Elliot Daly sliding in for another galloping, grandstand finale.

The past five Six Nations meetings between England and Wales at Twickenham have been decided by two, four, three, six and four points respectively.

Not always as memorable as 1999 or 2017, but always tight.

"It's hostile, there's confrontation, they are tough games," remembered George, when asked about the nature of England's matches against Wales.

"You feel it in the stadiums that you play at - at the Principality, at Allianz - there's a different energy in the crowd."

That's the way it was.

But the energy last March was different, in a different way

England ran amok in Cardiff. Ten tries, a record 68 points against Wales, and a run on the scoreboard that crashed confidence in one of the most reliable contests in the calendar.

"There's not many Test matches you get to sit in late and smile, enjoy and take in without thinking of a message, a decision, or a substitution that might be needed," said Richard Wigglesworth, England's senior assistant coach, of last year's victory.

England ran in an unprecedented 68 points on their way to victory at the Principality Stadium in their final match of last year's Six Nations

That he should be afforded that luxury in Cardiff was once unthinkable.

The bookmakers predict a similarly leisurely final quarter for Wigglesworth and his team on Saturday, though.

Their best guess of England's winning margin is 30 points - a difference, 2025 apart, not seen in a competitive meeting between England and Wales for 20 years.

Wales' decline has been steep.

They were world number ones in 2019. They were Six Nations champions in 2021.

But, with a stellar generation of players heading into retirement, they have lost 11 straight Six Nations matches, with successive wooden spoon finishes to show from 2024 and 2025.

The form on the Test arena has been accompanied by a reorganisation of the domestic game that has opened old wounds and inflicted fresh ones, with no resolution in sight.

The combination has sent Welsh public belief plummeting to uncharted depths.

At the time of writing, 43% of respondents to a BBC Sport poll predict another Six Nations whitewash for their side.

Thousands of Principality Stadium tickets - once devoured in a daffodil-clad frenzy - remain unsold.

Robin McBryde, who represented Wales as both a coach and player, provided the most devastating diagnosis, back in February 2025.

"It seems rugby has lost it's soul in Wales," he said. "I don't think anyone is enjoying themselves, there's not a lot of people watching the game. It's just very sad."

And things are even more grim 12 months on.

Steve Tandy is the man attempting to mould something out of the mess.

The 46-year-old, who represented Neath and Ospreys - the tradition most under threat as the Welsh Rugby Union streamline their regional system - became Wales head coach in September.

His reputation was built on forging suffocating defences for teams to build from. Scotland and the British and Irish Lions have both benefited.

Leicester have too. Tandy came in for a short stint while Wigglesworth was coaching there.

"He seemed like a really good bloke and very switched on for what he did," said Wigglesworth.

"I've always been really impressed with the teams he's been involved in. All the coaches who have worked with him as well, speak highly of him - he's a good coach."

England have predicted that, as such, Tandy will attempt to level the pitch by taking to the skies.

Head coach Steve Borthwick suggested as many as 50 contestable kicks could be coming the way of his back three.

A lot of them would need to fall Wales' way for the visitors to emerge victorious on Saturday, though.

If they do, it would rank as arguably the biggest shock in the fixture's 145-year history.

If, more feasibly, England - with title aspirations - inflict another thrashing, those nip-tuck, nose-to-nose inferno finishes of years gone by would seem even more distant.

Damage limitation instead of dreams of victory occupy the minds of most Wales fans.

George says he has no fears over the long-term competitiveness of the rivalry.

"I don't think it'll be a problem," he said.

"I think Wales are going to be a good team moving forward. I think they're going to be a good team on Saturday."

Good enough? By the high standards set by this match in the past? That still seems some way off.